Forecast for the Week  

It will be a quiet week when it comes to economic reports, but with the healthcare debate heating up in Washington and the Fed’s Mortgage Backed Securities Purchase program winding down, there are still plenty of events that could impact the markets and home loan rates.

On the economic report front, Thursday brings another Initial Jobless Claims Report. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims met expectations, but the big news was that the report showed 5.7M people claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits, which was an increase of over 207,000 from the prior week. 

On tap for Friday is the Retail Sales Report, and as the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns, it is important to see how the numbers come in. In fact, last week’s Personal Consumption Expenditure report revealed that during January, consumers made less, saved less and spent more - but it remains to be seen if the increase in spending will show up in the Retail Sales Data.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart, Bonds made some improvements during the week, but the gains were capped by a rally in Stocks and positive economic data. I’ll be watching closely as always during the coming week - and please feel free to contact me anytime to learn more, or discuss your own financial and home loan situation.

 Patrick Dunn, Westwood Mortgage Inc. & MMG Weekly
patrick@westwoodmortgage.com / http://www.certifiedplanning.com

Finally…and patience is truly a virtue.  The tremors started back in October (when we were hoping to close the first week of January) and I have to say now, my clients have been through it all! 

The dust has settled and it seems the larger majority of the kinks have been worked out…just looking forward to a successful close and the epic outcome of all the hype the new pricing has created.  More details to follow!

Just an FYI- the individual wine cellars in the wine cave will be managed and leased by the HOA.  Cellar capacity ranges from 18-30 bottles and will lease anywhere from $225 to $300 per year- renewed annually.

Escala cutting condo prices by 50 percent
Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle) - by Kirsten Grind

Downtown Seattle condominium tower Escala will lower prices by as much as 50 percent on unsold units, the luxury building’s new marketing firm said Tuesday.

Rennie Marketing Systems and the building’s listing agent, Bellevue-based Teambuilder, declined to release price cuts on each unit, but said savings will range from 20 percent to 50 percent.

A 1,878-square-foot penthouse once priced at more than $4 million will now sell for $2.3 million, said Erik Mehr, a sales manager at Teambuilder. The building’s top-priced unit — a $12 million penthouse — is now selling for just under $7 million.

A one-bedroom, 952-square-foot condo will start at $384,000, a two-bedroom, 1,607-square-foot condo will start at $699,000 and a three-bedroom, 2,442-square-foot condo will start at $1.6 million.

Click here to read more!

Last Week in Review  
“LIKE SLUGGISH WATERS THROUGH A MARSH…” The poet Sir Walter Scott wasn’t talking about the economic recovery, but his words paint a pretty vivid picture…and after last week’s economic reports, perhaps a pretty accurate one on the state of the recovery.

Last week’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report showed that the economy grew 5.9% in the 4th quarter of 2009, which was in line with expectations and the best GDP reading in more than 6 years - which on the surface, sounds like a great number. However, the gains came from rebuilding of inventory and very modest business spending - not from consumer spending.  The biggest component of GDP is consumer spending and the revised number on that front came in lower than expected, and far worse than the 3rd Quarter of 2009, when the government’s Cash for Clunkers program temporarily boosted sales.

On the housing front, Existing Home Sales for January were reported at 5.05 Million units, which was less than expectation of 5.44 Million.  As you can see from the chart below, Existing Home Sales have now declined for two consecutive months. New Home Sales for January were also reported below expectations last week. 

Odds are that inclement weather affected the housing market negatively in January - since people are less likely to go house hunting in the midst of snowstorms and freezing temperatures. But in any case, last week’s data demonstrated that the housing market remains a bit lethargic.

The good news is that today’s affordable home prices and amount of supply on the market - not to mention low rates and the government’s Homebuyers Tax Credit - present tremendous opportunities for homebuyers who are looking for a great deal.

Chart: Existing Home Sales (By Month)

So how do consumers feel about the economy? Last week, we got a look at two different reports…and both indicated that consumers don’t share the rosy outlook of politicians and the media. Consumer Confidence was reported at 46.0, which was much lower than expectations of 55.0. In addition, the University of Michigan reported that Consumer Sentiment also fell in February. Both reports pointed to ongoing concerns over employment as a major reason for the drop in consumer attitudes about the economy.

Forecast for the Week  
This will be a big week of news, starting off right away Monday morning with reports on Personal Income and Personal Spending. We’ll also get a look at the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), which is the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation.

As if that weren’t enough news for one day, we’ll also see the Institute for Supply Management Index on Monday. This is the king of all manufacturing indices and is considered the single best snapshot of the factory sector, so the markets will be paying attention to this report.

Toward the end of the week, we’ll get another look at employment and housing with the reports on Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales on Thursday.

Finally, the week ends with a bang when the official Jobs Report is released. This report includes the latest government data on job losses and the unemployment rate, as well as the average work week and hourly earnings. With the ongoing concerns over the struggling job market, it will be important to get a current read on the situation.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds were able to rally last week on weak housing numbers and the struggling jobs market, resulting in improved home loan rates. I’ll be watching carefully in the week ahead to see if Bonds and home loan rates can build on their positive momentum.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 26, 2010)

Patrick Dunn, Westwood Mortgage Inc. & MMG Weekly
patrick@westwoodmortgage.com / http://www.certifiedplanning.com

I just received this notice from Escala!! Sales Center opens on 3/27/10…more details to follow!

Dear Ashley,

The Escala Seattle Team
1920 Fourth Avenue
Seattle WA  98101

602 W Highland Drive
6bd/7.5ba (7000SF)
FOR LEASE- $15,000 per month, fully furnished

Located on Seattle’s most coveted West Highland Drive, surrounded by heritage homes, manicured lawns and well-established estates, this fully furnished 6 bedroom, 7.5 bathroom 7000 SF home is poised on private corner lot adjacent to a dedicated drive circle with iconic views of downtown Seattle, Elliott Bay and surrounding mountain ranges. It is within walking distance of Queen Anne’s most famous view parks and play areas, as well as several residential amenities such as Metropolitan Market, Trader Joe’s, Top Pot Doughnuts, Via Tribunali and local coffee shops. 
 
Completed in 2006, this grand residence is a blend of traditional French provincial architectural design with transitional aesthetics and modern conveniences. The formal home plan is designed for entertaining flexibility and features five terraces including a roof top terrace with a fireplace, adjacent wet bar and full bath; a view terrace with a Blackpine™ eight-person hot tub with audio/visual system; and an expansive main level terrace with a NanaWall™ window wall system that opens to the living room- perfect for those warm summer days! The double height entry, interior Juliet balconies and voluminous ceilings (10’ main level and 9’ second level) create a very open, bright and inviting ambiance that magnify the commanding vistas of the city, Elliott Bay, Mount Rainier and Olympic Mountains throughout.

For the culinary entertainer, French doors off the main entry lead to the formal dining room with an oversized gas fireplace, seating for up to twelve guests, chocolate-stained solid cherry hardwood floors, vaulted ceiling with indirect valance lighting accented by silver leaf ceiling, custom-designed chandelier and wall sconces on dimmer controls. There is also an adjacent wet bar with wine chiller and direct access to kitchen.

The kitchen features chocolate-stained cherry hardwood cabinets with frosted glass doors and under cabinet lighting, knife-mitered slab onyx island surrounded by double-edge slab granite countertops, self-closing drawers with Valli & Valli™ cabinet hardware, Kohler™ Professional Series™ 48-inch three basin stainless steel sink, chef’s choice overhead faucet with ½ hp disposal, 8-foot+ kitchen island with bar seating for four, 48-inch, Dacor™ six-burner gas range and oven, Viking™ stainless-steel range hood with variable speed and direct venting, KitchenAid™ vented trash compactor, Sub-Zero™ under-cabinet refrigerator, two built-in Bosch™ dishwashers adjacent to kitchen sink, Viking™ 48-inch side-by-side refrigerator / freezer with water / ice dispenser, Dacor™ wall oven, two microwaves, Miele™ espresso machine and integrated Sony™ TV.

The generous master retreat showcases panoramic views of city lights and Elliott Bay with south facing exposure and a wrap-around terrace. Offerings also include an expansive custom walk-in closet with a built-in safe, options for additional his-and-hers closets, a gas fireplace with limestone surround featuring an integrated 50-inch Pioneer™ flat screen TV and a large master bathroom with private his-and-hers water closets, ebony wood and silver leaf vanities with separate make-up area, an oversized Kohler™ jetted bathtub with ceiling-mounted tub filler and a custom glass shower featuring Kohler™ “body spa” systems and steamer.

This home is complete with a home audio system with multi-room sound controls, custom furnishings by Garret Cord Werner, radiant in-floor heating, multiple-zone air conditioning throughout home and a Honeywell™ security system with video camera pre-wire. 

View more details at www.602WestHighland.com or www.seattlerentals.com/13514

We have all followed The Alex for over 2 1/2 years now and it looks like there is a light at the end of the tunnel- VOLTA. 

Situated on the corner of 1st and Bell (on one of my favorite stretches in Belltown)…this 9-story, 34 unit building is nearing completion with the Sales Gallery opening this coming spring.  According to the website, there are 20 different floorplans (live/work, 1bd & 2bd) to choose from and square footages range from 524SF to 1250SF.  Surprisingly, the 1 bedroom located on the NW corner looks to be the largest in the building- would be my first choice in terms of view, storage, SF and flow!  Pricing is rumored to start at $299, 950! More details to follow… 

I am glad they finally replaced the old and outdated sign with the new and improved…much better!

With all the insane new construction price reductions going on right now, the Four Seasons has officially joined the club by slashing original pricing by as much as 47%! 

There are 13 units available- check out the new pricing!

Please let me know if you would like additional information or to arrange a private tour!

Forecast for the Week  
While it’s hard to say what opinions might be uttered this week, there will definitely be plenty of news in store.

We’ll get a look at the housing market with Wednesday’s New Home Sales Report and Friday’s Existing Home Sales Report. It will be interesting to see if these reports are looking more positive, as many buyers are working to take advantage of the Homebuyer’s Tax Credit before it expires this spring. If you want to learn more about this Tax Credit and how it might help you or someone you know - don’t hesitate to get in touch with me, I can share all the details and important timelines.

Also this week, we’ll get several reads on the health of the economy with Thursday’s Durable Goods Report - which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big ticket items that last for an extended period of time - and Friday’s Gross Domestic Product Report, which is the broadest measure of economic activity.

Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Report and Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims Report will also be important to watch. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers were higher than expected, showing that the labor market is still struggling. The bottom line is that while some of the recent economic reports have had encouraging signs, the economy needs to create jobs and regain consumer confidence before any positive opinions on the economy will become reality.

And as if it won’t be a week jam packed full of opinions already, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be weighing in with some thoughts of his own, as he testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds ended the week below an important technical level. I’ll be watching closely to see if Bonds can reverse course and move higher this week, which would result in an improvement for home loan rates.

Chart: Fannie Mae 4.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 19, 2010)

 
The Mortgage Market View…  
Rates May Be Headed Up Soon…But Why?

You’ve heard a lot over the last several months about historically low home loan rates…but lately, you’ve probably been hearing the buzz that interest rates may be heading up in the near future, due in part to the Fed ending their purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities.

All of this begs the question: How and why do rates move…and what is happening right now?

The answer involves a number of factors and can seem complex. But it doesn’t have to be!

To help you understand how interest rates move, take a look at this easy to understand video. You’ll learn what the Fed has been doing to keep rates low, as well as the connection between interest rates and Mortgage Backed Securities.

Take a look at the following video now for an easy explanation:
How Rates Move - and What it Means Right Now

Patrick Dunn, Westwood Mortgage Inc. & MMG Weekly
patrick@westwoodmortgage.com / http://www.certifiedplanning.com